Global markets on Friday saw a relatively calm session, with gains but lacking solid momentum.

-U.S. stocks rose across the board, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.70%, the S&P 500 up 0.50%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.31%.

-The rallies in gold and U.S. Treasury bonds were reversed, with gold ultimately closing roughly flat and Treasuries lower;

-The U.S. dollar and crude oil are on divergent paths, with the dollar rising and oil prices falling.

First,Last night, the market was hit by two major surprises: Trump unexpectedly delivered bad news.I almost smashed the plate with my own hands.), and Iran has unexpectedly brought good news—this isLast night, the most dramatic—and also the most absurd—aspect of the market was…。One hour after the U.S. stock market opened (After 10:40 PM Beijing time) It had briefly turned lower, and oil prices had briefly turned higher. Trump warned Iran to “behave,” sending U.S. stocks into a midday pullback. However, this time it was Iran that propped up the market; Iran’s foreign minister subsequently stated that the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has “never been so close.”Beijing time22:54), the market resumed its upward trend. The market remains driven by “headline‑driven news.”

Second,Although U.S. stocks have risen for two consecutive trading days, they have yet to recoup all the gains lost since last Friday. Moreover, Friday’s rally looked rather peculiar: the Dow’s gain was nearly twice that of the S&P 500, while the S&P 500’s advance was almost double the Nasdaq’s—reversing the usual relationship among the three.A descending inverted triangular pattern with terms in geometric progression). Typically, when market sentiment warms up, the Nasdaq should lead the charge. This peculiar structure reveals the market’s lack of confidence.

Third,This was a “shifting the beams and replacing the rafters”‑style rally. Prior to Thursday’s rally, the market had been weighed down by concerns over a Federal Reserve rate hike, resulting in a sharp decline. Meanwhile, the rallies on Thursday and Friday were underpinned by optimism that an Iran deal was imminent, as Thursday was “a must-win battle for defense”—Trump had to find a way to push the market higher that day, with gains reaching 2%. However, market concerns remain unresolved— inflation is still overheated, the labor market remains robust, and both continue to support further interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Next week, the Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest-rate decision, and market attention will once again shift back to the Fed.Dot matrix diagram。

Fourth,On Friday, both bulls and bears had reached their limit—U.S. stocks endured sharp swings, the U.S. dollar index neared a return to the 100 level, the 10-year Treasury yield was close to reclaiming 4.5%, and the 30-year yield was nearing 5%—a highly precarious stalemate.

The “quietness” on Friday was that deathly stillness that sets in just before a heavy rain, when the atmospheric pressure dips to its lowest point.

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1. The latest “Next Week’s Gold and Crude Oil Strategy” has been released: Has gold’s plunge come to an end? Has crude oil’s plunge begun?

2. The world has changed, and we have revalued A- shares, gold, and Bitcoin. If the gold bull market ends, how low could prices fall? Has the A- share bull market come to an end??

3. Despite the wild swings in U.S. stocks and gold, Wall Street remains bullish on only one asset class.

4. The U.S. dollar has once again taken center stage. Will it remain strong, or is a new round of depreciation on the horizon? Is the renminbi set to depreciate as well? All the answers are right here.