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How to create job opportunities for the 1.2 billion new global workforce

The world operates at different wavelengths. Some are high-frequency shocks - wars, emerging technologies, market panics - they quickly surge and dominate our attention. There are also some low-frequency forces that are slowly but continuously advancing: population structure, globalization, water resources, and food shortages.
High frequency waves feel urgent. Low frequency waves can reshape the system.
This does not mean that the crisis is insignificant. But we cannot become slow burning victims just because the current crisis is more intense or occupies more headlines. If you ignore the slow burning time, it will turn into a raging flame.
One of the forces is already in action.In the next 10 to 15 years, 1.2 billion young people in developing countries will reach working age - a scale the world has never seen before.According to the current trajectory, these economies are expected to create only about 400 million jobs during the same period, leaving a staggering gap.
This is often described as a development challenge, and it is indeed the case. This is also an economic challenge. And this is increasingly becoming a national security challenge.
The most striking aspect of the Davos conference was that this issue was easily overlooked - overshadowed by the urgency of the current situation. This must not be ignored in upcoming forums such as the G7 and G20 meetings.
If we invest in talent early and connect them with productive work, this vast new generation can establish a dignified life and become the foundation for growth and stability.If we don't do this, the consequences are foreseeable: institutional pressureillegal immigrantsConflict, and the growing sense of insecurity as young people seek any viable path.
The World Bank Group is urgently taking the first path by integrating public finance, knowledge, private capital, and risk management tools around the three pillarsEmployment Strategyopen.
Firstly, establish infrastructure - including both human and physical aspects. Without reliable electricity, transportation, education, and healthcare, private investment and employment opportunities will never emerge. Although the role of physical infrastructure is well understood, investing in talent is equally crucial. For example, a skills center in Bhubaneswar, India, supported by government and private sector cooperation, trains nearly 38000 people annually. Due to the alignment of preparation work with real market demand, almost all graduates are able to find jobs or create their own employment opportunities, and receive support in engineering, manufacturing, and intellectual property training.
Secondly, create a business friendly environment.Clear rules and predictable regulation reduce uncertainty and enhance business convenience. When entrepreneurs and businesses have the confidence to invest and expand, job opportunities will be created. Public resources can help unlock this process, but large-scale job creation relies on the private sector - especially micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises that create the most jobs.
This leads to the third pillar: helping businesses achieve scale. Through our private sector, we provide equity, financing, guarantees, and political risk insurance. One recent model is to support trade financing guarantees from Brazilian banks, releasing approximately $700 million in affordable funds for Brazilian small businesses, especially in the agricultural sector, directing capital towards businesses driving local growth.
We focus on the areas with the greatest employment potential, covering five industries that continue to create large-scale employment: infrastructure and energy, agricultural enterprises, primary healthcare, tourism, and value-added manufacturing.
This is not an abstract theory. It is based on evidence, national experience, and the difficult choices about limited resources that can have the greatest impact.
This is not a zero sum proposition either.
By 2050, over 85% of the global population will live in developing countries. This is not only the largest expansion in the history of the global workforce, but also the greatest growth for future consumers, producers, and markets. Regardless of whether the motivation is development, altruism, reward, or safety, investing energy and resources in this effort has its role and rewards.
Developing countries benefit from job creation, income, stability, and dignity. They enhance domestic demand and give young people a reason to invest in their own future instead of looking elsewhere.
Developed countries also benefit from it. With the development of developing countries, they have become stronger trading partners, more resilient supply chain anchors, and more stable neighbors. The growth of these markets has expanded global demand and reduced the pressure that leads to illegal immigration and insecurity - resulting in real economic and political costs far beyond borders.
For the private sector, whether it is financial institutions or operators, this represents one of the biggest opportunities for the next few decades. Rapid population growth means sustained demand for energy, food systems, healthcare, infrastructure, housing, and manufacturing.
Limitations are never a lack of opportunities. But rather real and perceived risks. This is exactly where development institutions can play a catalytic role: financing infrastructure, supporting regulatory reforms, and reducing risks.
If we do this right, the low-frequency forces that shape the world - in this case, population structure - will become engines of growth and stability, rather than sources of volatility and risk. If we make a mistake, we will continue to pursue crises - responding to those already visible outcomes, even for years or even decades.
The choice is not whether these forces will shape the future. They will. The choice lies in whether we act early and guide them towards opportunities, or wait until they appear in an unstable form.
This article was originally published onBloomberg。
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